The man breaking out of the boulder is a piece of art given to my university 100 years ago. The artist’s name is Axel Ebbe, and the sculpture was given to Lund University in 1918 for its 250th anniversary. It symbolizes mankind breaking out of the darkness of ignorance. It has been my favorite sculpture since my first year at university. It is also an obvious symbol of my current research interest.
The concept of strategy and therefore strategic thinking has a long history. I am, however, beginning to think that we got stuck in increasingly less and less suitable assumptions. One assumption is that analytical tools based on more or less carefully researched experiences are the only way to think strategically. Textbooks in strategy are full of such devices. In B-schools around the world, we teach our students how to use these tools. I am beginning to think that we need to break out of that boulder!
An article named “A multidimensional conceptualization of environmental velocity” by MacCarthy et al. (2010) introduces a simple model for talking about the future and our ability to foresee the future. The paper introduces the concept of “Environmental velocity” as an important analytical concept. The authors have developed a framework that examines the variations in velocity across multiple dimensions of the environment (homology) and the causal linkages between those velocities (coupling). They then propose four “velocity regimes” based on different patterns of homology and coupling and argue that the conditions of each regime have important implications for our ability to foresee the future and therefore, I argue, for strategic thinking.
One way of reading the future would be to say that the velocity and the complexity of the couplings between critical dimensions in our strategic homologous increase. As a consequence, we can not rely on experience as guidance in strategic thinking and decision making. Hence, tools based on such experience is less relevant or valuable. Sticking to the thinking coming out of this stubborn trust in the lessons of the past might actually prevent us from seeing how to navigate the future.
In a changing world, it seems safe to assume that the marginal utility of experience is falling over time. What I learned yesterday might be very valuable tomorrow but less so two years from now. The more radical or disruptive the changes we experience around us, the more rapid the marginal utility of experience will fall. If that is the case, we need to be careful in using the strategic/analytical tools of yesterday.
This is the starting point of my research interest.
What does Strategic Thinking entail?
Do we need a “new” way of thinking?
Do we need to break out of the boulder?
